Why we should stop comparing SMIC to Nvidia and TSMC

Why we should stop comparing SMIC to Nvidia and TSMC

In the semiconductor industry, two companies frequently dominate the conversation: Nvidia and TSMC.

Nvidia has established itself as the leader in artificial intelligence (AI) chip development, while TSMC is recognized as the world’s most advanced chip manufacturer. Alongside these giants stands SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation), listed as HKG:0981,  China’s largest semiconductor foundry.

Distinct Roles in the Semiconductor Landscape

A common misconception among investors is the direct comparison of SMIC with Nvidia or TSMC. However, this comparison is misplaced. Equating SMIC with Nvidia or TSMC is similar to comparing a national railway company with technology giants like Tesla or Microsoft. Although all these companies play significant roles within their respective sectors, the nature of their contributions and the roles they fulfill in the economy are fundamentally different.

The difference in roles

  • Nvidia designs chips. Its GPUs power AI, gaming, and data centers. Its moat is not just hardware but also software, especially its CUDA ecosystem that developers worldwide rely on.
  • TSMC manufactures chips for others. It is the world’s most advanced foundry, producing Apple’s latest processors, Nvidia’s GPUs, and virtually every cutting-edge chip that needs 5nm or below processes.
  • SMIC manufactures chips too, but mainly for China. Its primary role is not to win global market share but to guarantee that China can produce chips even under U.S. and European export controls.

That last point is crucial. SMIC is not trying to dethrone TSMC globally or compete with Nvidia on AI performance. Its purpose is to be the reliable workhorse for China’s chip needs.

 

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SMIC’s moat is unique

When we look at moats, we usually mean technology or brand power. But SMIC’s moat is of a different nature:

  • Policy support: In 2024, SMIC received about US$411 million in subsidies, nearly 87% of its operating profit. This direct support shows how critical SMIC is to national strategy.
  • Domestic demand lock-in: China is the world’s largest semiconductor market. Even if SMIC lags behind on the most advanced nodes, there is ample domestic demand for its chips in telecoms, consumer electronics, and infrastructure.
  • Sanctions shield: Export restrictions prevent Nvidia and others from selling their most advanced products into China. That forces Chinese companies to turn to SMIC, even if the chips are less powerful.
  • Scale and infrastructure: SMIC has multiple fabs in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Tianjin. These are billion-dollar factories that smaller local rivals cannot match in capacity.

This combination creates a moat that looks nothing like Nvidia’s or TSMC’s but is just as real. SMIC is irreplaceable in the Chinese ecosystem, not because of cutting-edge technology, but because of its position at the heart of national strategy.

 

Why comparisons mislead investors?

It is tempting to ask: “Can SMIC catch up with TSMC at 3nm?” or “Will SMIC challenge Nvidia in AI GPUs?” The answer is almost certainly no. Asking the question even misses the point.

  • Nvidia’s moat comes from ecosystem dominance. It has decades of developer lock-in and unmatched AI performance. SMIC is not even in the same business.
  • TSMC’s moat is technological leadership and yield at scale. SMIC is constrained by export controls that prevent access to the very tools needed for cutting-edge production.
  • SMIC’s moat is strategic necessity. It exists to guarantee China’s chip independence.

Investors who compare SMIC’s valuation directly with Nvidia’s or TSMC’s risk misunderstanding what they are buying. Nvidia and TSMC are global growth leaders. SMIC is a domestic resilience play.

How to think about SMIC as an investment?

For investors, this means SMIC should be judged on a different basis:

  • Revenue growth: In 2024, SMIC’s revenue grew 27.7% year-on-year to US$8 billion. That shows demand is strong despite restrictions.
  • Profitability with subsidies: Without government support, SMIC would have thin profits. With subsidies, it remains stable. That dependence is part of the investment case, not a flaw.
  • Valuation: SMIC trades at far lower multiples than Nvidia or TSMC. The discount reflects real risks but also creates upside if the company narrows its technology gap.
  • Strategic positioning: SMIC is a national champion. Its role is protected, and its demand is effectively locked in by policy and politics.

Investing in SMIC is not about betting on global leadership. It is about betting on China’s determination to secure its semiconductor supply chain.

Conclusion: A league of its own

SMIC should not be compared to Nvidia or TSMC. Each serves a different master:

  • Nvidia drives global AI innovation.
  • TSMC manufactures the world’s most advanced chips.
  • SMIC secures China’s independence in semiconductors.

For investors, that means SMIC is a league of its own. Its moat is not technology or software but policy, domestic demand, and strategic necessity. That makes it less glamorous, but no less important.

The next time someone asks whether SMIC can “beat” Nvidia or TSMC, the best answer is simple:
“It doesn’t need to. SMIC’s playing a different game.”

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